How to analyse an Ice Hockey match for betting purposes
When gambling on individual ice hockey matches for singles, doubles, trebles, accumulators, correct scores, double results, first or last scorer betting, specials or statistic type betting – number of assists or powerplays for example, it is sometimes necessary to do a little research before placing your bet.
Here are some tips and suggestions on what to check before betting on ice hockey matches:
Check the divisions, conferences and overall league “standings” of the teams at NHL.com. As with the Premier League after 12 games, in the NHL, you can get a good idea of which teams are stronger and weaker after about 20 games.
We sometimes think a team is good because they are famous but that does not always mean they are doing well at this time. Also consider that a team in 6th is not always going to beat a team that is 14th – especially away and if there are only 4 points between them.
Use the league table to check things like the number of Home and Away wins and the number of wins and losses after shoot-outs. As the season gets going you can see patterns in which teams win and lose more shoot-outs than others or which teams do not win so often when they are “on the road” or “away”.
The goal difference is also significant as you can see which teams are scoring many goals to those who are conceding many goals and you can see which teams have very strong defenses are more likely to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 than they are 2-1 or 3-1 or 4-2 for example.
Look at the fixture lists of individual teams in advance because teams often under-perform or over-perform against certain teams at certain times of the season. For example when a team in the bottom four is scheduled to play their next three matches against three teams in the top 8, there will often be at least one surprise.
Look at when teams may have an easy or difficult week – when are the top teams (and bottom teams) playing each other for example.
Consider the travelling, the rivalries and the number of games in a row which are played.
The fourth game in a row for a strong team can often break that team’s form or a star player gets injured or the manager plays their third string to save their key players, this can cause some surprising wins for weaker teams.
The number of games played over a season means that teams have to play many games in a row and with few rest periods – each team will play at least 82 games! Many managers running successful teams will often rest key players and play young players with little experience against weaker teams too.
If a team has won ten games in a row in then start gambling on the loss.
If a team has lost three games in a row keep gambling on the loss until six in a row.
The longer an unbeaten streak lasts the closer it is to ending.
The longer a winless streak lasts the closer it is to ending.
Check information about “Derby” and “Bitter rivals” games. Derby games in Ice Hockey can be classed as the six teams from Canada (Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens, Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames and the Ottawa Senators) that play each other.
Bitter Rivals’ games are games between teams who have a history of competiveness (Montreal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins) so It is often a good idea to check the head to head record – that is separate statistics of the number of wins / losses and draws between the two teams since the two clubs formed.
These games are also highly emotional and so you will often see a higher number of penalties and power plays in these games.
Win, Loss runs – Check to see the longest win, loss streaks to help choose when that team may win, lose. If a team wins 6 games in a row and the longest streak it has for winning is 7 then it is highly unlikely that the streak is going to continue for much longer.
Check the records for longest winning and losing streaks. Since 2010 quite a few teams won 11 or more in a row in one season.
Coaches are changed more often than ever these days and of course this generally follows a very bad run of results, a very poor league position or failure to meet the board or the fans’ expectations. When the new coach takes over we often see a dramatic improvement in the teams’ effort, performance and results in the short-term. Look out for value bets at times when the coach has left the club or a new one has been appointed.
Think about key players in lots of teams, not just the top teams.
The goaltender is the most important player, a Stanley Cup winning team usually has one of the top 3 performing goaltenders in the league, some teams have a second goalie that also performs well. Some coaches will pull their goalkeeper immediately after a mistake while others wait too long. Look out for these situations.
Consider “under-rated” and “over-rated players” – different TV pundits, journalists and fans over value or under value players because of their reputation, age, loyalty or disloyalty – be your own judge – your winning and losing bets will help decide for you which players are good or not.
Regularly check the statistics of players, shots, assists, blocks and goals. The better they perform the more likely they will play more and therefore score or assist more. Look for players that are on “form” (performing at a very high level) and off “form” as players peak and dip as the season progresses.
Different players get “Serious” or “Niggling” injuries either often or almost never, some need operations, players coming back from injury are not always mentally strong and so may perform less well. Teams can also suffer dramatically from players being injured especially in key positions.
8.Power plays for and against
Check the statistics for different teams as power plays often lead to goals, if a team has an “enforcer” then there will be more power plays against that team which means more goals will be scored against that team.
Attacking teams are more likely to score in power play situation than defensive teams.