How to analyse tennis matches for betting successfully – 10 Tips
When gambling on individual tennis match results for singles, doubles, trebles, accumulators, correct set scores, correct games scores, specials or statistic type betting – number of aces, double faults or “Love” games for example, it is important to do some research before placing any bets.
Here are some tips and suggestions on what to check before betting on tennis tournaments and matches:
1. Player Rankings
Be sure to check the ranking position of the players in the match before making a bet because the closer their ranking to each other the closer the games and matches are more likely to be, while a large gap between the rankings can mean more “love” games (4 point to zero points) and sets to “love” (6-0).
We sometimes think a player is good because they are famous but that does not always mean they are doing well at this time. Consider that a player in 17th is not always going to beat a player that is 39th – especially when you consider whether the player in 17th is falling in the rankings and the player that is 39th is moving up the rankings.
Use the rankings table to check the points differences between the players and how close they are to moving up or down as this can affect their motivation levels at tournaments.
Check the ranking points allocated for winning tournaments on the ATP tour as this will affect how seriously or motivated a player may be for winning the tournament.
2. Matches on various surfaces (Clay, Cement, Grass, Indoor)
Players often under-perform or over-perform against certain players at certain times of the season and on certain surfaces. Andy Murray is useless on clay but very good on grass.
Look at when players may have had an easy or difficult match in the previous rounds – A series of difficult matches will have different effects on different players depending on their injuries, fitness levels and intensity of the tournament.
Consider the International breaks which are for Davis Cup and the Olympic games. These can often break or improve a player’s form.
Distances travelled for players playing in tournaments far from home can affect performances as well as the countries court type of the player. Spanish and French are strong on clay, Americans and Australians are strong on cement, Russians are strong on all.
3. Past Results
Check how many sets the player has “dropped” (lost) through the tournament as this can indicate where the player is weaker or which opponents have caused them problems. This is very useful in later betting when the players meet again in the future and you are looking for value.
Look out for “Bogey” players – These are players that for some reason often lose against one specific player whenever they player even when there is a huge gap between the players’ ranking positions.
Think about the season, the location of the match and the time of the match.
The tennis players are from all over the world and some of those players often find it difficult to adapt to the climate or weather of the country where they playing. The South American and Spanish players do not enjoy playing on a cold cloudy day in London in June while the European players find it hard to play in 35c degrees on a sunny afternoon in Australia.
Consider the court and stadium conditions – a dryer court makes the ball bounce higher, a humid atmosphere makes the ball travel further and faster. This is very useful for powerful servers leading to more aces.
Think about the rain. Rain often delays matches, sometimes for long periods which affects players. Some recover well while others lose their focus. Check for players who react better or worse after rain delays. Use this for “Live” or “In-game” betting.
5. Coach Changed
Players sometimes change coaches. When the new coach starts we often see an improvement in the player’s effort, performance and results in the short-term. Look out for value bets at times when the coach has changed.
6. Top players
Consider “under-rated” and “over-rated players” – different TV pundits, journalists and fans over value or under value players because of their reputation, age, loyalty or disloyalty – be your own judge – your winning and losing bets will help decide for you which players are good or not.
Different players get “Serious” or “Niggling” injuries either often or almost never, some need operations, players coming back from injury are not always mentally strong and so may perform less well.
8. Percentages / Statistics
There are many statistics available in tennis and it is useful to check averages for:
1st serves “in” %
Winning % on first serves
2nd serves “in” %
Winning % on 2nd serves
1st serve return winners
2nd serve return winners
Winners (including service)
Receiving Points Won
Break points converted
Fastest Serve speed
Average 1st Serve speed
Average 2nd Serve speed
Total points won
9. Style of play
Consider the different tactics used by players. Some will take a long time between points and serves while others will serve and play points more quickly, this is a tactic to upset the rhythm of opponents.
Some players are very aggressive – attack the first serve, come to the net at every opportunity for example. Others are more defensive – they stay at the back and are comfortable just returning shots until the opponent makes a mistake. With this in mind with the difference in rankings and ability can help you decide on correct score set and games betting.
Some players have a more shots available to put their opponents under pressure while others have only a few – for example Player A may have a huge serve but be terrible at volleys while Player B may have an average serve but be very good at volleying and backhanders. Check which players prefer forehand or backhand shots to force unforced errors by their opponents because for example when you have a right-handed weak back hander playing a strong left-handed server you may see more aces than average from the left handed player.
10.Temperament / Attitude
Some players will complain a lot, others will make a noise every time they hit the ball. Keep a note on players who complain about certain players’ behavior. When they play each other again knowing which player annoys another one can be useful information.
Players respond differently when they are playing well, badly or they disagree with the umpires. It is a good betting strategy to see how different players play and react when they are in different situations. This is very useful when betting in-game.