Six analysis points of American football for betting
When gambling on individual American Football matches for singles, doubles, trebles, accumulators, double results, first, second, third or fourth quarter results or scorers betting, specials or statistic type betting – number of yards thrown or touchdown points scored for example, it is important to do a little research before placing your bet.
Here are some tips and suggestions on what to check before betting on American Football matches:
1.Division, Conference and League Standings
Check the divisions, conferences and overall league “standings” of the teams at NFL.com. As with the NHL after 20 games, in the NFL, you can get a good idea of which teams are stronger and weaker after about 6 games.
We sometimes think a team is good because they are famous but that does not always mean they are doing well at this time. Also consider that a team in 2nd is not always going to beat a team that is 4th – especially “away” and if there are only 0.167 points between them.
Check the “non-conference” record with the “conference” record, some teams do very well against teams in their own divisions or conferences but not outside it.
The number of touchdowns is also significant as you can see which teams are scoring more points to those who are conceding many points and you can see which teams have very strong defenses so are less likely to “give up” points.
Look at the “schedule” lists of individual teams in advance because teams often under-perform or over-perform against certain teams at certain times of the season. For example when a team has a “bye” week they may come back fresher after a two week rest period or be more cohesive after more practice running “plays”.
Look at when teams may have an easy or difficult week – when the top teams (and bottom teams) are playing each other for example.
Consider the travelling, rivalries and the number of games teams have played.
The fifth and sixth games won in a “streak” for a strong team can often break that team’s form or a star player gets injured or the manager attempts “new” or “unusual” plays.
If a team has won five games in a row in then start gambling on the loss. Check the “streak” section in the league standings at NFL.com
If a team has lost three games in a row keep gambling on the loss until six in a row.
The longer an unbeaten streak lasts the closer it is to ending.
The longer a winless streak lasts the closer it is to ending.
Check information about division rivals’ games. Teams always play their division rivals and therefore have added meaning to the fixture.
“Bitter” rivals’ games are games between teams who have a history of competiveness so it is often a good idea to check head to head records – that is separate statistics of the number of wins / losses between the two teams since the two franchises formed.
These games are also highly emotional and so you will often see a higher number of penalties in these games.
5.Win, Loss runs
Check to see the longest win, loss streaks to help choose when that team may win, lose. If a team wins 4 games in a row and the longest streak it has for winning is 5 then it is highly unlikely that the streak is going to continue for much longer.
6.Quarterbacks, Runningbacks, Receivers and Defences
Of course, the quarterbacks are the most valuable players and so it is important to learn which ones are better than others.
Runningbacks and receivers are also very important and the best ones will score more touchdowns and make more gains in yardage, make sure you check individual statistics to choose the players and teams you want to bet on.
Defences are as important as offenses as it is these that stop quarterbacks from throwing so “sacks” are highly valued, check which quarterbacks get sacked more often or rarely.