Have you ever heard a word that VALUE BETTING and value odds? Estimating the implied probability of odds and finding value odds is one of the most essential pieces of knowledge for increasing your profit from online sports betting.
This guide helps you to learn about the details of value betting and find the most valuable odds for your targeted sports, leagues, and competitions.
1. Understanding Bookmakers Odds
Bookmakers make the "odds" or "prices" for thousands and thousands of bets, lines, and markets for many different sports for teams and individual players to win, draw, or lose a match, event, or win a special achievement.
Because of this, they sometimes offer odds that are higher than those of the other bookmakers. They do this to attract more customers and get more people to bet on that market, event, team, or player.
Sometimes, bookmakers make simple mistakes in a special event, game, or match and offer very good odds for a quite probable result. We often forget that the "Odds makers" (the people who create and adjust the odds) are humans who will sometimes make mistakes.
Bookmakers and oddsmakers also use statistics and AI tech to help choose the odds they offer. They will also change the odds depending on how much money that they have taken for a particular result and they may want to "cover" their outlay.
Bookmakers also bet with other bookmakers!
This helps bookmakers increase their profits and cover potential losses. It can also push rival bookmakers to lower their odds, making them less attractive to customers.
2. What Is A Value Bet?
Because bookmakers are doing all of these things with their odds, they sometimes offer odds that offer very good "value."
We call this a value bet. A value bet is when the odds offered on the result are very attractive and offer value—that is, the result may not happen, but if it does, it will pay out more than it really should.
For example
Manchester United vs Fulham
Let's look at the (imaginary) odds for this (imaginary) FA CUP fixture:
Manchester United to Win 1.33(1/3)
Draw 4.5(7/2)
Fulham to Win 7.00(6/1)
In this example, the "value" bet is for Fulham to win at 7.00. It is a simple example of a value bet. It offers "value" because:
・There are only 3 possible results for a football match – a win, a draw, and a loss.
・That means that the real possible outcome for Fulham to win is a 1 in 3 chance.
・The odds offered here show a 1 in 6 chance of the result being a Fulham win.
・The bookmakers are offering twice the odds on a 1 in 3 chance.
Other things can also add to a value bet:
Imagine Manchester United must play Barcelona in a Champions League Quarter Final match on the Wednesday after the Sunday FA Cup game. Because of this, maybe:
・Manchester United will not play their strongest team for this match because they will want to "rest" some players.
・Maybe they have two star players suspended and another injured.
・Maybe Fulham is at the top of their division, and their striker is the top goal scorer in the league.
Considering these other factors, the odds price of 7.00(6/1) to win becomes even more attractive.
If you also look at the correct score market, you might like 15.00(14/1) on 1-0 to Fulham because if Fulham does win, it is most likely to be 0-1.
3. Where Can I Find "Value" Bets?
Value bets can be found anywhere in any market. Of course, you need to look out for them. It also helps if you know the sport, event, team, or individual you are betting on well. Value bets are also identified by knowing who or what NOT to gamble on.
The following are markets we selected where you can find value often.
Football(Soccer)
- Top goal scorer each way bets
- To reach a Cup final (any country) – look at finalists from the last ten years.
- To Win the FA Cup - (pick from the top 6 Premier League teams)
- To Win England Championship / League 1 / League 2 - These always provide value, especially each way
- To win away football games – especially by a correct score of 1-0
- Corners Markets - Plenty of value bets here - see also our Corner Betting guide for more information
Cricket
- To win the Cricket World Cup in any format
- Top batsman in Cricket test matches
- To be top batsman and top wicket-taker doubles (parlays)
F1
- To win the race each way – The two best drivers often have very short odds leaving a lot of value for 2nd and 3rd place finishes for the rest – the number of crashes and problems cars have often means outsiders always have a chance.
- The weather the safety car and mistakes in the pit-lane also determines race finishing positions.
Ice Hockey
Ice hockey games offer great value, especially if you can find good doubles (parlays). There are also fantastic value bets in the correct score markets. Remember, a score of 1-0 is just as likely as a score of 4-3, unlike in football betting.
Horse Racing
It is where you can find real value. However, you must learn the sport, the tracks, the conditions, the stables, the jockeys, etc.
In Antepost betting, you can find great value up to a year before a race. A horse may be 21.00(20/1) or 34.00(33/1) just three months before a race and 8.00(7/1) at the start of the race. The earlier you place your bet, the more value you will get.
Rugby
There is plenty to be found in handicap betting markets in rugby.
Conclusion
Value betting means finding higher-price odds than the market average, but it does not mean unquestioningly picking the highest odds. It is important to research a sport you want to bet on well to notice the "gap," wrong calculations between odds and probability of outcomes.
The market average odds indicate bookmakers' and bettors' collective forecasts of the event results. So, when you want to find value odds, do not consider the average price as a primary factor for making predictions; you have to think and calculate probabilities of the outcomes by yourself first and then check the market.
For example, a 2-way match betting odds of 2.00(1/1) implies a 50% chance to win if bookmakers charge no margins. But if you estimate the player or the team has more chance to win the match, likely 70% or higher, the price of 2.00(1/1) is a pretty good value for you because the price would be 1.43(3/7) with a 70% probability. On the other hand, if you think the player has a chance to win only 30%, there is no value because the odds price would be 3.33(3/7) with your estimate, so the actual price of 2.00(1/1) is too low.
Find "Value" from the market average, and think "Value" from your estimation.
Of course, you have to open some betting accounts to compare the odds. Once you know what value betting is and how to find value odds, you will be able to find good value in every market and every time. This means your profit will increase. Good luck!
