American football is a complex sport that requires strategic thinking and detailed analysis when betting. This guide provides a comprehensive overview of the critical points to consider when analyzing American football matches for betting purposes. By understanding these elements, you can make more informed and profitable betting decisions.
Introduction
Betting on American football matches involves more than just picking a winning team. To increase your chances of success, you must analyze various factors influencing the game's outcome, such as standings, past results, win/loss streaks, rivalries, key players(mainly quarterbacks), etc. When gambling on individual American Football matches for singles, doubles, trebles, accumulators, double results, first, second, third, or fourth quarter results or scorers betting, specials or statistic type betting – number of yards thrown or touchdown points scored, for example, remember the details of each factor below.
1. Division, Conference, and League Standings
Understanding the standings in the league is crucial. This section will delve into why division, conference, and overall league standings matter and how to use this information effectively.
Importance of Standings
The standings give a snapshot of a team's performance over the season. Teams at the top are generally performing well, while those at the bottom may be struggling.
Using Standings for Betting
Home and Away Form: Analyze how teams perform at home versus away. Home advantage can significantly affect the outcome.
Goal Difference: Look at the point difference to gauge offensive and defensive strengths. Teams with higher point differences are usually more dominant.
Conference Records: Some teams perform better within their conference compared to non-conference games. This can provide insights into their consistency.
Example Analysis
Consider a matchup between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots, sitting at the top of their division with a strong home record, face the Dolphins, who are struggling away. The Patriots’ dominant goal difference further suggests they are likely to outperform the Dolphins.
Check the divisions, conferences and overall league standings of the teams at NFL.com.
As with the NHL ice hockey, after 20 games, you can get a good idea of which teams are stronger and weaker, while in the NFL football, it is after about 6 games.
We sometimes think a team is good because they are famous, but that does not always mean they are doing well. Also, consider that a team in 2nd will not always beat a team that is 4th – especially “away” and if there are only 0.167 points between them. As the season progresses, you can find patterns in which teams win and lose more home matches or do not win or lose so often when they are “on the road” or “away.”
2. Fixtures
Examining the schedule of the teams can reveal potential performance trends. This section explains how to use fixture information in your betting strategy.
Understanding Fixtures
Look at the schedule lists of individual teams in advance because teams often under-perform or over-perform against specific teams at certain times of the season.
For example, when a team has a “bye” week, it may come back fresher after a two-week rest period or be more cohesive after more practice running “plays.”
Look at when teams may have an easy or difficult week – when the top teams (and bottom teams) are playing each other, for example.
Upcoming Matches
Teams might underperform if they have crucial matches coming up, as they may rest key players. Analyze how teams prioritize different matches and competitions.
Example Analysis
If the Green Bay Packers have an upcoming crucial playoff game, they might rest key players in their current match against a lower-ranked team. This could impact their performance and make them more likely to underperform.
Also, consider the traveling, rivalries, and the number of games teams have played in the season. The fifth and sixth games won in a “streak” for a strong team can often break that team’s form, or a star player gets injured, or the manager attempts “new” or “unusual” plays.
3. Past Results
Historical data provides valuable insights into future performance. This section discusses how to use past results in your analysis.
Head-to-Head Records
Examine previous encounters between the teams to identify consistent patterns. Historical performance can highlight psychological advantages or specific tactics that work well against certain opponents.
Form Streaks
Teams on winning or losing streaks might continue these trends or be due for a change. Assess the context of these streaks to make better predictions.
Example Analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently beaten the Denver Broncos in their last five encounters. This head-to-head advantage could indicate a psychological edge, making the Chiefs a safer bet.
If a team has won five games in a row, start gambling on the loss. If a team has lost three games in a row, keep gambling on the loss until six.
The longer an unbeaten streak lasts, the closer it is to ending. And also, the longer a winless streak lasts, the closer it is to ending.
Check the “streak” section in the league standings at NFL.com.
4. Rivalries
Rivalry games often defy regular patterns and statistics. This section explores how to factor in rivalries when analyzing matches.
Emotional Intensity
Rivalry games are highly emotional, often leading to unpredictable outcomes. Teams may perform above or below their usual standards in these high-stakes matches.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Review the history of rivalry games to understand potential outcomes. Some teams consistently outperform their rivals regardless of current form.
Example Analysis
The rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens often results in close and fiercely contested games. Despite the Steelers’ superior form, the unpredictable nature of rivalry matches makes the outcome less certain.
Check information about division rivals’ games. Teams always play their division rivals, adding meaning to the fixture.
“Bitter” rivals’ games are games between teams with a history of competitiveness, so it is often a good idea to check head-to-head records – that is, separate statistics of the number of wins/losses between the two teams since the two franchises formed. These games are also highly emotional, and so you will often see a higher number of penalties.
5. Win and Loss Streaks
Understanding win and loss streaks can help predict future performance. This section explains how to analyze streaks effectively.
Longest Streaks
Identify the longest winning and losing streaks to determine potential trend reversals. Teams rarely maintain long streaks, making it crucial to spot when a streak is likely to end.
Betting on Streaks
Bet on the continuation or end of a streak based on historical data and current performance trends. This approach can help you capitalize on predictable patterns.
Example Analysis
The San Francisco 49ers are on a five-game winning streak. However, they face the Seattle Seahawks, a formidable opponent with a strong home record. The streak might end, making the Seahawks a viable bet.
6. Key Players and Team Dynamics
Key players significantly impact match outcomes. This section highlights how to analyze the importance of key players and overall team dynamics.
Quarterbacks
Of course, quarterbacks are the most valuable players in American football, often determining the game's outcome. So, it is essential to learn which ones are better and analyze their performance, injury status, and recent form.
Running Backs and Receivers
Running backs and receivers are also very important, and the best ones will score more touchdowns and make more gains in yardage. Check individual statistics to choose the players and teams you want to bet on.
Defensive Units
Defensive units can stop the opposing team’s offense. Analyze sack rates, interception records, and overall defensive performance to gauge their impact.
Example Analysis
The impact of Patrick Mahomes for the Kansas City Chiefs cannot be overstated. His current form, combined with a strong offensive line, suggests a high probability of a successful offensive display. Conversely, if the Chiefs’ defense has been weak against the run, it might be exploited by a strong running back.
Conclusion
Analyzing American football matches for betting requires a comprehensive approach that considers various factors, including standings, fixtures, past results, rivalries, streaks, and key players. By following these six key points, you can improve your betting strategy and increase your chances of success.
American football is a highly tactical sport. It means that, unlike sports such as soccer and rugby, where players dynamically unfold during the game, each attack and defense has a clear role and purpose given to the players. Therefore, if you're predicting an American football game, it's crucial to understand each player's characteristics, abilities, and conditions. Check out the latest information on NFL.com or statistics websites, which collect data to grasp trends.
Always remember to bet responsibly and leverage the insights gained from your analysis. We hope our tips can be helpful for those of you placing bets on American football at bookmakers. Good Luck!
