How to analyse basketball matches for betting purposes – 7 Tips
When gambling on individual basketball match results and player performances for singles, doubles, trebles, accumulators, correct score spreads, specials or statistic type betting – number of 3-pointers, for example, it is sometimes useful to do a little research before placing your bet.
Here are some tips on what to check before betting on basketball matches or tournaments:
1. League position
Always check the Conferences and the Divisions before making a bet because there are often surprises. We sometimes think a team is good because they are famous but that does not always mean they are doing well at this time. Also consider that a team in 2nd is not always going to beat a team that is 5thth – especially away and if there are only 4 points between them.
Use the league table to check things like the number of Home and Away wins. As the season gets going you might see patterns for example which teams do not play well when they are away.
2. League Information
An NBA league table will display the following information:
|W||L||Win %||GB||CONF||DIV||Home||Road||Last 10||Streak|
So this information says that Team A has:
W = Won (53) games / L = Lost (29) games
Win % = The % of games the team has won so 64.6%
GB = games behind, this is the number of games a team needs to win to be number 1, team A is number 1 and so GB is 0 or (-).
CONF = The number of games Team A has won and lost against teams in the Conference.
DIV = The number of games Team A has won and lost against teams in the Division.
Home and Away = The number of games Team A has lost Home and Away.
Last 10 = The number of games Team A has won and lost in their last 10 games played.
Streak = The number of games Team A has won or lost in a row so W3 = Team A has won their last 3 games.
3. Past Results
If a team has a winning streak check the team’s longest and use that to choose when to bet on the loss. The longer a winless streak lasts the closer it is to ending.
If a team has a losing streak check the team’s longest and use that to choose when to bet on the win. The longer an unbeaten streak lasts the closer it is to ending.
Check the head to head records – that is the statistics showing the number of wins / losses between the two teams since the two teams formed.
Distances travelled for teams playing away games can affect teams too. Which teams travel by bus, train or plane? Which are more comfortable. How long are the journeys? How far apart are the cities the teams play? If a team has to travel across the U.S. to play on Thursday then travel back to play on Sunday this is going to affect the team’s preparations dramatically for both games.
5. Key players
Think about key players in lots of teams, not just the top teams.
Statistics can be found for players, this helps with individual performance betting as well as team betting, some example statistics are:
Points per game
Rebounds per game – Points scored after a shot is missed
Assists per game
Blocks per game
Steals per game – A type of turnover
Turnovers per game – When the ball is given to Team B before Team A has scored
Three pointers made per game
Free Throws made per game
Fantasy Points per game
Other statistics include:
Most total points
Active triple Double Leaders – A “double” is when a player scores 10 or more points in one game in three from the five stats of points, rebounds, assists, blocks or steals. The most common 3 “doubles” are points, rebounds, and assists.
Most Triple Doubles in a season
Highest Scoring Game
Most rebounds in a game
Most assists in a game
Most points in a game
Most 3PM in a game – PM means “Points made” so 3PM = the number of three point baskets the player has scored in a game
Most Steals in a game
Most blocks in a game
When analyzing individual player’s performances, bet on offensive players that have a high points % or a high assist %, don’t give away many turnovers, score offensive rebounds and are fouled often and bet on defensive players that make offensive players score a low % of shots, get a lot of turnovers, stop offensive rebounds and don’t give away many fouls.
Different players get “Serious” or “Niggling” injuries either often or almost never, some need operations, players coming back from injury are not always mentally strong and so may perform less well. Teams can also suffer dramatically from players being injured especially in key areas such as stealing and shooting.
7. Style of play
Teams that win basketball games often:
Shoot a high field goal percentage – the higher the % the more points a team is likely to score, while missed shots can mean a higher % of turnovers which means the opposing team can score more points.
Do not commit many turnovers (allowing the Team B to get the ball before Team A has scored) – the fewer the turnovers the team gives away the more likely they will win the match because a team cannot score if they don’t have the ball.
Score more offensive rebounds – after a shot is missed if the offensive team can score the rebound then they are more likely to win because a) they still get points even after a missed shot and b) they don’t give a turnover away.
Give away fewer fouls – fouls means free throws, more free throws means more points.
The system a team plays, or the tactics they use are not as good as the players themselves. Good teams can score from anywhere.
A passing team creates more Assists and more assists means more points are scored.